We live in an age where risk is no longer an abstract concept relegated to risk registers and quarterly reviews. It is front-page news. It is embedded in our daily operations. It is defining corporate strategy and destabilizing it in equal measure. And nowhere is this more apparent than in the proliferation and intensification of geopolitical risk.
In June alone, across my engagements in Denmark, the UK, and beyond — from financial services to international logistics, from UN agencies to infrastructure providers — geopolitical risk has emerged as the dominant concern. It shapes every conversation, touches every operational dependency, and forces organizations to rethink not just their risk postures but their very business models.
Yet, amid this rising tide of uncertainty, most organizations are not equipped to manage risk as it truly exists: dynamic, interconnected, and globally impactful. Worse, many still approach risk management through outdated lenses: overly focused on compliance, reactive rather than proactive, and siloed from strategy and performance.
To confront this challenge, we must rethink what we mean by “risk management” in Governance, Risk Management, and Compliance (GRC). This is a call to action: to modernize our understanding of the “R” in GRC, to embrace external risk intelligence, and to build agile, objective-centric, and forward-looking risk programs that can navigate today’s complex geopolitical terrain.
The “R” in GRC: A Tiered Approach to Risk Management
Over the years, I have articulated a three-level model for understanding and operationalizing risk in the context of GRC. These levels provide a lens through which to evaluate both capabilities and technology solutions—and expose the widening gap between operational routines and strategic foresight.
1. Operational Risk & Resilience (Bottom Layer)
This is where most organizations concentrate their risk efforts. It’s the realm of internal controls, KRIs, incident tracking, risk registers, RCSAs, and risk matrices. It’s often compliance-driven, deeply procedural, and largely focused on the past to the present—what went/can go wrong, and how to prevent recurrence.
This level is insufficient. It’s the reactive muscle of risk management, and certainly not proactive. It’s also where most GRC solutions play, digitizing workflows and supporting regulatory alignment. However, it fails to provide insight into future uncertainty or connects risk to organizational objectives.
These are often necessary activities, particularly from a compliance requirement. But they tell us little about what’s coming next.
2. Objective-Centric Risk & Resilience (Middle Layer)
This is the level where risk management becomes proactive, integrated, and performance-aligned. Risk is not managed in a vacuum but is directly linked to the organization’s ability to achieve objectives: whether operational, financial, or strategic. It requires engagement with front-line operations and cross-functional collaboration. Risks are evaluated in terms of their potential to impact the achievement of objectives. Performance and resilience become two sides of the same coin.
This level of risk management starts to factor in context: economic conditions, regulatory trends, and industry movements. But to fully realize its value, it must be underpinned by external risk intelligence. At the apex lies strategic foresight: the ability to scan the horizon, anticipate disruption, and reallocate resources accordingly to enable the organization to reliably achieve (or exceed) objectives. As ISO 31000 states, risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. It involves scenario modeling, war-gaming, and geopolitical forecasting.
3. Strategic Risk & Resilience (Top Layer)
This level of risk management is forward-looking, deeply integrated with the Board and C-suite, and all levels of management. It is critical to sustaining competitive advantage in an era of turbulence. This is the realm of risk-informed decision making.
It’s not just about protecting strategy: it is about shaping strategy through risk-informed intelligence. It’s where risk becomes a strategic asset.
Examples:
- A multinational consumer brand evaluating reshoring manufacturing from East Asia due to rising geopolitical tensions and export controls.
- A financial institution modeling different regional regulatory futures to decide where to expand its crypto asset services.
- An infrastructure company using digital twins to simulate the impact of political instability on supply chains across the Middle East and Africa.
Yet, despite its criticality, this level is the least addressed by traditional GRC technology. Most platforms are built for workflows and compliance — not strategy, objectives, and foresight.
The Geopolitical Imperative: Why This Matters Now
The global landscape is more volatile than at any point in recent memory. Consider the following:
- Russia’s war in Ukraine has upended energy markets, global grain supply, and security alliances.
- China-U.S. tensions impact everything from semiconductor supply chains to regulatory compliance in digital services.
- Sanctions regimes are expanding and shifting rapidly—requiring constant monitoring of evolving blacklists and economic restrictions.
- EU regulations are reshaping resilience, supply chain, and digital governance.
- Middle East instability, rising authoritarian nationalism, and emerging conflicts in Africa and Southeast Asia add to the unpredictability.
The result: business strategy and achieving objectives is inseparable from geopolitical context.
In June alone, I had multiple conversations where geopolitical risk was the top concern:
- An international agency trying to unify project, portfolio, and enterprise risk in fragile regions.
- A CISO going to RFP to support digital trust, citing nation-state cyber threats and regulatory risk exposure.
- A global shipping company with risks catalogued, aligning them to operational and strategic objectives through collaborative assurance models and looking to further enhance strategic risk and resilience to support decision making.
In each of these cases, the ability to anticipate, understand, and respond to external developments is what separates resilient organizations from reactive ones.
The Missing Ingredient: External Risk Intelligence
This brings us to the heart of the problem. Traditional risk management is inward-facing. It documents internal failures, assigns ownership, and produces metrics. But in a world shaped by external uncertainty, this is not enough.
What’s needed is a robust capability for external risk intelligence, combining two key functions:
1. Horizon Scanning
The ability to identify emerging risks, weak signals, and trend developments before they materialize into crises. This includes:
- Monitoring geopolitical flashpoints.
- Tracking emerging regulatory regimes across jurisdictions.
- Anticipating supply chain disruptions from climate, conflict, or trade policy.
- Identifying reputational risks in social and media landscapes.
2. Situational Awareness
The real-time ability to understand what is happening now: across vendors, geographies, and regulatory regimes. This supports:
- Crisis response planning.
- Incident impact assessments.
- Operational pivoting (e.g., re-routing shipments, adjusting pricing, halting expansion).
Few solutions do this well. Most focus on internal processes, not external monitoring. But I’ve seen several promising approaches. These solutions are beginning to bridge the gap between external reality and internal response.
Toward a Risk Intelligence-Enabled GRC Strategy
The way forward is clear. Organizations must evolve their GRC capabilities to incorporate external context and align risk practices with business performance and resilience. This requires:
- Embedding Risk into Strategic Planning
Risk officers should sit alongside strategy teams. Risk appetite, not generically but in context of each objective/decision, should shape capital allocation, M&A, market entry, and innovation. - Moving Beyond Compliance-Driven Risk Management
Regulatory compliance is the floor, not the ceiling. True GRC success is about enabling agility, resilience, and performance under uncertainty. This is the very definition of GRC since 2003. The capability to achieve objectives, address uncertainty, and act with integrity. - Investing in External Risk Intelligence Solutions
These should plug into your GRC and operational data environment, contextualizing decisions in real-world conditions. - Reimagining Risk Technology
Demand more from your platforms. Workflow automation is not enough. Seek out tools that integrate strategy, objectives, and external intelligence. I would also highly encourage the use of digital twins. - Building a Culture of Anticipation
Train your teams not just to manage what went wrong, but to ask what could go wrong, and what could go right if we seize the opportunity embedded in risk.
Final Thoughts: Risk is Not the Enemy, It Is the Lens
Geopolitical risk is not going away. It is the air we breathe in global business. The challenge is not to eliminate risk but to navigate it intelligently. That requires a new mindset, one that views risk not just as a hazard to avoid but as a lens through which to understand the world, evaluate opportunity, and drive resilient performance.
Let’s stop managing risk as a checklist and start managing it as a strategic capability. It’s time to make the “R” in GRC stand for more than reporting. Let it stand for Resilience, Realism, and Readiness in a world that demands nothing less.